Sensitivity of Russian forest timber harvest and carbon storage to temperature increase

Abstract

Russia is a leading exporter of industrial round wood and supplies many countries with a large share of their wood fibre. However, warming temperatures are likely to have an impact on the productivity of Russian forest stands and affect their production capacity and management. The forest gap model FAREAST was used to derive biological growth parameters of several forest types; these data were then used within an economic model to discern the response from both a timber harvest and carbon sequestration perspective. An incremental warming of 28C resulted in an increase in the timber harvest for most forest types. A 48C increase, however, caused nearly all projects to yield less timber and sequester less carbon than under current conditions. Only stands in northwestern Russia stocked with Pinus sylvestris, a fast growing heat-tolerant species, continuously increased timber harvest and carbon sequestration in parallel with extreme temperature changes; however, stands with greater species diversity were less sensitive to increased temperatures. Russian forest carbon sequestration, a process mentioned as a method to mitigate climate change, may become less effective by the same process it is hoped to assuage.