Abstract
Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests are the gold standard for detecting recent infection with SARS-CoV-2. RT-PCR sensitivity varies over the course of an individual’s infection, related to changes in viral load. Differences in testing methods, and individual-level variables such as age, may also affect sensitivity. Using data from New Zealand, we estimate the time-varying sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR under varying temporal, biological and demographic factors. Sensitivity peaks 4-5 days post-infection at 92.7% [91.4%, 94.0%] and remains over 88% between 5 and 14 days post-infection. After the peak, sensitivity declined more rapidly in vaccinated cases compared to unvaccinated, females compared to males, those aged under 40 compared to over 40 s, and Pacific peoples compared to other ethnicities. RT-PCR remains a sensitive technique and has been an effective tool in New Zealand’s border and post-border measures to control COVID-19. Our results inform model parameters and decisions concerning routine testing frequency.
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