Sensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: A modeling case study

Abstract

The goal of this modeling study is to determine how concentrations of ozone respond to changes in climate over the eastern USA. The sensitivities of average ozone concentrations to temperature, wind speed, absolute humidity, mixing height, cloud liquid water content and optical depth, cloudy area, precipitation rate, and precipitating area extent are investigated individually. The simulation period consists of July 12–21, 2001, during which an ozone episode occurred over the Southeast. The ozone metrics used include daily maximum 8 h average O 3 concentration and number of grid cells exceeding the US EPA ambient air-quality standard. The meteorological factor that had the largest impact on both ozone metrics was temperature, which increased daily maximum 8 h average O 3 by 0.34 ppb K −1 on average over the simulation domain. Absolute humidity had a smaller but appreciable effect on daily maximum 8 h average O 3 (−0.025 ppb for each percent increase in absolute humidity). While domain-average responses to changes in wind speed, mixing height, cloud liquid water content, and optical depth were rather small, these factors did have appreciable local effects in many areas. Temperature also had the largest effect on air-quality standard exceedances; a 2.5 K temperature increase led to a 30% increase in the area exceeding the EPA standard. Wind speed and mixing height also had appreciable effects on ozone air-quality standard exceedances.