Sensitivity of Limited-Area Hybrid Variational-Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts to Ensemble Perturbation Resolution

Abstract

Abstract Dual-resolution (DR) hybrid variational-ensemble analysis capability was implemented within the community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model data assimilation (DA) system, which is designed for limited-area applications. The DR hybrid system combines a high-resolution (HR) background, flow-dependent background error covariances (BECs) derived from a low-resolution ensemble, and observations to produce a deterministic HR analysis. As DR systems do not require HR ensembles, they are computationally cheaper than single-resolution (SR) hybrid configurations, where the background and ensemble have equal resolutions. Single-observation tests were performed to document some characteristics of limited-area DR hybrid analyses. Additionally, the DR hybrid system was evaluated within a continuously cycling framework, where new DR hybrid analyses were produced every 6 h over ~3.5 weeks. In the DR configuration presented here, the deterministic backgrounds and analyses had 15-km horizontal grid spacing, but the 32-member WRF Model–based ensembles providing flow-dependent BECs for the hybrid had 45-km horizontal grid spacing. The DR hybrid analyses initialized 72-h WRF Model forecasts that were compared to forecasts initialized by an SR hybrid system where both the ensemble and background had 15-km horizontal grid spacing. The SR and DR hybrid systems were coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter that updated ensembles each DA cycle. On average, forecasts initialized from 15-km DR and SR hybrid analyses were not statistically significantly different, although tropical cyclone track forecast errors favored the SR-initialized forecasts. Although additional studies over longer time periods and at finer grid spacing are needed to further understand sensitivity to ensemble perturbation resolution, these results suggest users should carefully consider whether SR hybrid systems are worth the extra cost.