Sensitivity of Flood-Depth Frequency to Watershed-Runoff Change and Sea-Level Rise Using a One-Dimensional Hydraulic Model

Abstract

AbstractClimate change and sea-level rise are expected to alter the likelihood of extreme events, such as floods, within the design lifetime of infrastructure components. Critical civil infrastructure facilities, including wastewater treatment, transportation, and energy, need site-specific flood contingency plans that reflect the effects of changing climate. This study developed a sensitivity analysis method to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and streamflow response to increased precipitation intensity. The method was applied to an ungauged location on a tidal estuary in the Mid-Atlantic region as a case study. One-dimensional (1D) unsteady flow analysis using a hydraulic analysis software developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was used to predict discharge and water surface elevation along the estuary reach, subject to prescribed boundary conditions of upstream discharge and downstream water surface elevation. A current-climate flood-dep...