Sensitivity of Dryline Convection Forecasts to Upstream Forecast Errors for Two Weakly Forced MPEX Cases

Abstract

Abstract The sensitivity of convective forecasts along the Texas dryline to upstream forecast fields at earlier lead times is evaluated for two consecutive days (27–28 May) characterized by no clear synoptic forcing for convection initiation (CI) during the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) by applying the ensemble-based sensitivity technique to convection-allowing WRF ensemble forecasts. For both cases, the members with stronger convection are characterized by higher water vapor just above the top of the boundary layer, which is associated with lower convective inhibition (CIN) at the time of CI. Forecast convection is sensitive to the lower-tropospheric water vapor and zonal wind at earlier lead times farther south along the dryline, such that increasing the water vapor and/or making the wind more easterly is associated with more convection. For 28 May, the water vapor along the dryline is also sensitive to the convection that occurs around 0600 UTC, which leads to cold pool–induced surface divergence that subsequently shifts the dryline north or south. Ensemble members that correctly have decreased convection in the Texas Panhandle on 28 May have more accurate forecasts of water vapor and meridional wind with respect to dropwindsondes in the sensitive region 9 h prior to CI compared to members with more extensive convection. Reducing the 0-h water vapor within the sensitive region can suppress convection in members with extensive convection; however, increasing the 0-h water vapor does not lead to more convection in members without convection.