Sensitivity of Arctic warming to sea surface temperature distribution over melted sea-ice region in atmospheric general circulation model experiments

Abstract

Substantial reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has intensified air-sea interaction over the Arctic Ocean and has altered atmospheric states in the Arctic and surrounding high-latitude regions. This study has found that the atmospheric responses related to Arctic sea-ice melt in the cold season (October–March) depend on sea-ice fraction and are very sensitive to in situ sea surface temperature (SST) from a series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations in which multiple combinations of SSTs and sea-ice concentrations are prescribed in the Arctic Ocean. It has been found that the amplitude of surface warming over the melted sea-ice region is controlled by concurrent in situ SST even if these simulations are forced by the same sea-ice concentration. Much of the sensitivity of surface warming to in situ SST are related with large changes in surface heat fluxes such as the outgoing long-wave flux in early winter (October–December) and the sensible and latent heat fluxes for the entire cold season. Vertical extension of surface warming and moistening is sensitive to these changes as well; the associated condensational heating modulates a static stability in the lower troposphere. This study also indicates that changes in SST fields in AGCM simulations must be implemented with extra care, especially in the melted sea-ice region in the Arctic. The statistical method introduced in this study for adjusting SSTs in conjunction with a given sea-ice change can help to model the atmospheric response to sea-ice loss more accurately.