Abstract
The accurate prediction of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, or medicanes, is an important challenge for numerical weather prediction models due to their significant adverse impact on the environment, life, and property. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of an intense medicane, which formed south of Sicily on 7 November 2014, to the microphysical, cumulus, and boundary/surface layer schemes. The non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.7.1) is employed. A symmetric cyclone with a deep warm core, corresponding to a medicane, develops in all of the experiments, except for the one with the Thompson microphysics. There is a significant sensitivity of different aspects of the simulated medicane to the physical parameterizations. Its intensity is mainly influenced by the boundary/surface layer scheme, while its track is mainly influenced by the representation of cumulus convection, and its duration is mainly influenced by microphysical parameterization. The modification of the drag coefficient and the roughness lengths of heat and moisture seems to improve its intensity, track, and duration. The parameterization of shallow convection, with explicitly resolved deep convection, results in a weaker medicane with a shorter lifetime. An optimum combination of physical parameterizations in order to simulate all of the characteristics of the medicane does not seem to exist.
Highlights
Over the last decades, the research community and the operational weather forecasting agencies have shown an increased interest in Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (TLCs)
The tracks generally followed the path of the actual TLC14 from 12:00 UTC 7 November to 00:00 UTC 8 November, when the cyclone exhibited a symmetric deep warm core in the ECMWF analyses, with most of the simulated tracks misplaced to the northern side
No experiment managed to simulate the landfall at eastern Sicily or follow closely the track of TLC14 after it lost its tropical characteristics
Summary
The research community and the operational weather forecasting agencies have shown an increased interest in Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (TLCs). These are intense sub-synoptic maritime lows with strong winds, an axisymmetric warm-core structure, and tropical cyclone features in the satellite images, such as a cloud-free eye and spiral deep convection [1]. They are frequently referred to as medicanes (MEDIterranean hurriCANES [2]) due to their resemblance to tropical cyclones. Cavicchia et al [6] performed a dynamical downscaling study for the period 1948–2011, and estimated a frequency of about 1.6 ± 1.3
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