Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis for Natural Gas Hydrate Production Tests in Alaska

Abstract

The Japan Research and Development Consortium for Pore Filling Hydrate in Sand (MH21-S), the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE NETL), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are planning a long-term production test from gas hydrate (methane hydrate) bearing reservoirs in the Prudhoe Bay Unit in northern Alaska. Prediction of gas and water production using 2D reservoir simulation models can be very useful for decision-making for long-term production testing. However, the input parameters applied to the simulation model, which are essentially based on the most likely values obtained from the well-log interpretation and core sample measurements of the Hydrate-01 stratigraphic test well (STW), have some degrees of uncertainty. In this study, to evaluate the impact of uncertainties in the input model on the prediction results of gas and water production as well as to analyze how each input parameter contributes to the uncertainties of prediction results, we conducted uncertainty analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis based on two different methods (the regression-based method and the Sobol’ method). The sensitivity analyses reveal that the parameters regarding relative permeability (exponential of the gas relative permeability (Ng) and residual gas saturation (Sgcr)) and the intrinsic/effective permeability of the lower B1 sand significantly contribute to the uncertainties of the gas and water production predictions. In addition, the uncertainty analyses reveal that the P50 value of cumulative gas production can result in less than the reference case with the most likely values for the input parameters due to the uncertainty of Ng. These results indicate that reducing the uncertainties of gas relative permeability and residual gas saturation is essential for more reliable numerical simulations both for prediction of test well performance and subsequent history matching of field test results.