Sensitivity Analysis on Influence Factors of Comprehensive Energy Planning for Low Carbon City in China

Abstract

In order to alleviate the pressure of urban energy and environment, more and more attention has been paid to the comprehensive utilization of energy in the process of urban planning. In this paper, according to Delphi method, a questionnaire of influence factors is designed. Sixteen major influence factors are extracted from dozens of preliminary influence factors by expert research. Sensitivity of the sixteen influence factors is analyzed using R data analysis software, including importance analysis, correlation analysis, and cluster analysis. Hierarchies of the sixteen influence factors in planning and design field, technology field, and management field are established respectively. The results show that sixteen influence factors are all divided into four levels in three fields; influence factors in the first three levels vary with the professional background of experts; however, low carbon energy saving policy and low carbon concept and technology are all included in the first level; especially the fourth level contains the same factors. Based on the results, relevant countermeasures and suggestions on comprehensive energy planning for low carbon city in China are put forward: Firstly, stress on the study of policy and master planning; secondly, formulate the planning idea of “Multiple Plans Integration”; thirdly, control low carbon indicators in construction, transportation, and industry; fourthly, ensure the continuity of compilation, implementation, and management of comprehensive energy planning.