Sensitivity analysis of three pearl millet cultivars to varying temperature and CO2 concentration on summer pearl millet in south Saurashtra Agro-climatic zone of Gujarat using CERES-MILLET model

Abstract

The sensitivity analysis of three cultivars (GHB 538, GHB 558 and GHB 732) of pearl millet was performed to study the impact of climate change on summer pearl millet in south Saurashtra Agroclimatic zone of Gujarat using calibrated CERES-millet model by changing maximum and minimum temperatures by -4 to +4 °C and increasing concentration of CO2 upto 530 ppm. Results revealed that with increase in maximum temperature by 4 °C, the grain yield was decreased by 11.4 to 19.9 % and anthesis and maturity was decreased by 10 to 13 days in different cultivars. The effect of minimum temperature was also of the similar order to maximum temperature, but the varietal differences were observed. The simulated grain yield increased up to 18.2 %, anthesis increased up to 11 days and maturity increased up to 17 days with elevated CO2 concentration of 530 ppm.