Abstract
AbstractWildlife populations are often affected by natural or artificial disasters that reduce their vital rates leading to drastic fluctuations in population dynamics. We use a stage‐structured matrix model to study the recovery process of a population given an environmental disturbance. We focus on the time it takes the population to recover to its pre‐event level and develop general formulas to calculate the sensitivity and elasticity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population, vital rates, and event severity. Our results suggest that the recovery time is independent of the initial population size but it is sensitive to the initial structure. Moreover, the recovery time is more sensitive to reductions in vital rates than to the duration of the impact of the event. We explore an application of the model to the sperm whale population in Gulf of Mexico following a disturbance such as the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.Recommendations for Resource Managers Understanding a population's recovery process following a disturbance is important for management and conservation decisions. This study establishes a general framework that makes it possible to identify the key components in the recovery process. When applied to a sperm whale population, the recovery time appears to be most sensitive to changes in survival. In addition, the magnitude of impact of a disturbance may have a greater impact on the recovery time than the duration of impact of the disturbance.
Highlights
Over the centuries, the rate at which human activity affects the ecosystem has been accelerating (Vitousek, Mooney, Lubchenco, & Melillo, 1997)
We focus on the transient population dynamics and consider the simple case where no additional catastrophic event happens during the recovery process
Values 0.4732 0.1151 0.2586 0.4920 0.4920 present in areas of the Gulf impacted by the oil spill (Ackleh et al, 2012) and studies have shown that the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill has affected the vital rates of large marine mammals in Northern Gulf of Mexico both through the toxins released during the oil spill and the chemical dispersants thrown in (Geraci, 1990; Lane et al, 2015; Wise, Wise, Wise, Thompson, & Wise, 2014a; Wise et al, 2014b)
Summary
The rate at which human activity affects the ecosystem has been accelerating (Vitousek, Mooney, Lubchenco, & Melillo, 1997). In another study, Bridges, and Carroll (2000) used a matrix population model to project the ecological effects of chronic sediment toxicity on the estuarine amphipod Leptocheirus plumulosus Both studies assumed that the environment was constant and focused on examining the asymptotic growth rate λ and its sensitivity to model parameters, which provides useful information such as the population trend and reveals the most important life stages of 33 ooff 2222 the population. We derive formulas for the sensitivity of the recovery time to changes in the initial population structure, vital rates, and environmental factors.
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