Sensitivity analysis of the orbital debris environment using the evolve 4.0 model

Abstract

A number of models to describe the current and future orbital debris environments have been developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. One of these models, EVOLVE, is a complex simulation model that uses future space traffic, fragmentations, and nonfragmentation processes to predict future environments for debris 1 mm in diameter and larger. New breakup models incorporating new data on orbiting fragmentation debris, as well as new data from laboratory tests, are being developed for use by EVOLVE. These models will have different size, area-to-mass, and velocity distributions than in the current baselines. With the inclusion of the new breakup models, EVOLVE will be upgraded to version 4.0. Because there is limited data on debris sources and uncertainty in the importance of these sources in future debris environment evolution, it is important to understand the sensitivity of environment projections to these uncertainties. To calculate the sensitivity of the environment to characteristics of the debris sources, alternative environment projections will be obtained by making a series of modifications to the nominal source characteristics in EVOLVE. These modifications (e.g., to the traffic model and postmission disposal model) and the planned sensitivity study framework are described in this paper. Metrics for determining change in the environment are also defined in the paper and used to discuss sensitivities.