Sensitivity analysis of the main factors controlling the potential volumetric evaluation of natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea

Abstract

The China Geological Survey successfully completed the second trial of natural gas hydrate (NGH) production in 2020, and the daily gas production and total gas production were greater than those in the first trial, but the evaluation of NGH resources in the South China Sea (SCS) is still in the evaluation stage, specifically for the gas content. In 2021, some scholars used different methods to more accurately evaluate NGHs in the SCS to aid in NGH exploration and evaluation in the SCS; some of them analysed the main factors controlling NGH resources, added several factors to the volume method for optimization, studied the sensitivity of the evaluation of resources to each of the main controlling factors (NGH stability zone area, NGH area coefficient, NGH stability zone thickness, NGH thickness coefficient, NGH reservoir porosity, NGH reservoir saturation, NGH volumetric ratio, NGH resource ratio coefficient and NGH recovery coefficient) and found that the effective thickness coefficient, effective thickness and effective area coefficient are the most sensitive; these values are 23.15%, 15.66%, 13.98%, and 13.95%, respectively, while the other values are 0%, 15.66%, 8.42%, 8.41%, 2.50%, and 13.92%; taking into account the influence of the main controlling factors, the range of the water resource potential evaluation results in the SCS is 2.4 × 107 m3–5.9 × 1014 m3, the modal value is 7.25 × 1011 m3, and the confidence level of the modal ±25% interval is 77.8%; these values provide a higher evaluation accuracy and higher resource level, which is consistent with the current results of NGH research in the SCS. Although the development of NGHs in the SCS is progressing rapidly, basic exploration is relatively scarce, and the number of samples of effective thickness obtained through dozens of exploratory wells is too few. It is recommended that China carry out more exploration and research projects in the Shenhu area and the entire SCS to obtain more accurate thickness data.