Sensitivity analysis of technology and supply change for CO2 emission intensity of energy-intensive industries based on input–output model

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis based on Leontief model is applied for identifying the key factors leading to the change of CO2 emission or energy consumption in the competitive market from demand perspective. On the other hand, this kind of research from supply-side is also valuable for the economy with characteristics of rationing. Based on previous research achievements, this paper developed out sensitivity analysis based on the Ghosh model. In addition, we implemented sensitivity analysis based on the Leontief and Ghosh model respectively to study the most sensitive factors leading to the change of CO2 emission intensities of the six energy-intensive industries. In terms of 2010 Chinese symmetrical input–output table, the results obtained from the two sensitivity analyses are different. From the demand perspective, the level of production technology in the construction industry plays very important role in the CO2 emission intensity of energy-intensive industries. While, from the supply side, the adjustment of rationing in extraction of petroleum and nature gas should be paid more attention. At last, comparative analysis was carried out and corresponding policy suggestions were put forward. Emphatically, the method used in this paper could be applied to other industries within supply chains of a country, even in the world wide.