Sensitivity analysis of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol exposure.

Abstract

As vaccination campaigns are in progress in most countries, hopes to win back more normality are rising. However, the exact path from a pandemic to an endemic virus remains uncertain. While in the pre-vaccination phase many critical indoor situations were avoided by strict control measures, for the transition phase a certain mitigation of the effect of indoor situations seems advisable. To better understand the mechanisms of indoor airborne transmissions, we present a new time-discrete model to calculate the level of exposure towards infectious SARS-CoV-2 aerosol and carry out a sensitivity analysis for the level of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol exposure in indoor settings. Time limitations and the use of any kind of masks were found to be strong mitigation measures, while how far the effort for a strict use of professional face pieces instead of simple masks can be justified by the additional reduction of the exposure dose remains unclear. Very good ventilation of indoor spaces is mandatory. The definition of sufficient ventilation in regard to airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission follows other rules than the standards in ventilation design. This means that especially smaller rooms most likely require a significantly greater fresh air supply than usual. Further research on 50% group models in schools is suggested. The benefits of a model in which the students come to school every day, but for a limited time, should be investigated. In terms of window ventilation, it has been found that many short opening periods are not only thermally beneficial, they also reduce the exposure dose. The fresh air supply is driven by the temperature gradient and wind speed. However, the sensitivity towards these parameters is not very high and in times of low wind and temperature gradients, there are no arguments against keep windows open in order to make up for the reduced air flow rate. Long total opening periods and large window surfaces will strongly reduce the exposure. Additionally, the results underline the expectable fact that exposure doses will increase when hygiene and control measures are reduced. It seems advisable to investigate what this means for the infection rate and the fatality of infections in populations with partial immunity. Very basic considerations suggest that the value of aerosol reduction measures may be reduced with very infectious variants such as delta.