Sensitivity analysis of Phast’s atmospheric dispersion model for three toxic materials (nitric oxide, ammonia, chlorine)

Abstract

We present the results of a parametric sensitivity analysis of a widely used model for atmospheric dispersion of toxic gases, in order better to understand the influence of user-adjustable parameters on model outputs. We have studied 60 min continuous release scenarios for three different products (nitric oxide, ammonia and chlorine), chosen to cover a range of physical characteristics and storage conditions. For each product, we have broken down base-case scenarios into a number of sub-scenarios corresponding to different release conditions which determine physical phenomena (flow rate, release angle, release elevation and atmospheric stability class). The use of statistical tools to analyze the results of a large number of model executions allows us to rank model parameters according to their influence on the variability of a number of model outputs (distances and concentrations), on a per-scenario and per-product basis. Analysis of the results allows us to verify our understanding of the modeling of cloud dispersion.