Sensitivity analysis of local uncertainties in large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) thermo-mechanical simulations

Abstract

In this paper, a sensitivity analysis for the data originating from a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) analysis of an EPR-type nuclear power plant is presented. In the preceding LOCA analysis, the number of failing fuel rods in the accident was established (Arkoma et al., 2015). However, the underlying causes for rod failures were not addressed. It is essential to bring out which input parameters and boundary conditions have significance to the outcome of the analysis, i.e. the ballooning and burst of the rods. Due to complexity of the existing data, the first part of the analysis consists of defining the relevant input parameters for the sensitivity analysis. Then, selected sensitivity measures are calculated between the chosen input and output parameters. The ultimate goal is to develop a systematic procedure for the sensitivity analysis of statistical LOCA simulation that takes into account the various sources of uncertainties in the calculation chain. In the current analysis, the most relevant parameters with respect to the cladding integrity are the decay heat power during the transient, the thermal hydraulic conditions in the rod’s location in reactor, and the steady-state irradiation history of the rod. Meanwhile, the tolerances in fuel manufacturing parameters were found to have negligible effect on cladding deformation.