Sensitivity analysis of launch activities in Low Earth Orbit

Abstract

This work aims to investigate the response of the low Earth orbit environment to the change in number and distribution of new launches and to understand the effects of the size and post-mission lifetime of a large constellation of spacecraft. The analysis presented in this paper were carried out using MISSD, Model for Investigating control Strategies for Space Debris, a multi-shell, and multi-species source-sink statistical model able to simulate the injection, removal and interaction of six type of objects up to an altitude of 2000 km. The results suggest that multiple regions experience a sensible increment in the orbital density when slightly increasing the launch activity for the next 200 years. Recently, many private companies expressed their interest in putting large constellations of satellites at 1100–1300 km altitude. However, results show that the launch of just six additional spacecraft per year in this region increased the spatial density by an amount equal to the projection over 200 years of today's most crowded region. Results also show that the increase in the orbital population and collision risk caused by the presence of large constellations could be mitigated using a high level of post-mission disposal compliance, reliable deorbit mechanisms and reducing thepost-mission lifetime to 5 years.