Sensitivity analysis of ecosystem CO2 exchange to climate change in High Arctic tundra using an ecological process-based model

Abstract

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. A major concern is how the carbon balance of these ecosystems will respond to climate change. In this study, we constructed a simple ecological process-based model to assess how the carbon balance will be altered by ongoing climate change in High Arctic tundra ecosystems using in situ observations of carbon cycle processes. In particular, we simulated stand-level photosynthesis, root respiration, heterotrophic respiration, and hence net ecosystem production (NEP) of a plant community dominated by vascular plants and mosses. Analyses were carried out for current and future temperature and precipitation conditions. Our results showed that the tundra ecosystem was a CO2 sink (NEP of 2.3–18.9 gC m−2 growing season−1) under present temperature conditions. Under rising temperature (2–6 °C), carbon gain is significantly reduced, but a few days’ extension of the foliage period caused by their higher temperatures compensated for the negative effect of temperature on NEP. Precipitation is the major environmental factor driving photosynthetic productivity of mosses, but it had a minor influence on community-level NEP. However, NEP decreased by a maximum 15.3 gC m−2 growing season−1 under a 30-day prolongation of the moss-growing season, suggesting that growing season extension had a negative effect on ecosystem carbon gain, because of poorer light conditions in autumn. Because the growing season creates a weak CO2 sink at present, lengthening of the snow-free season coupled with rising temperature could seriously affect the future carbon balance of this Arctic tundra ecosystem.