Sensitivity analysis of drought indices under substantially different agricultural systems in North and South Koreas

Abstract

<p>Rice is a staple food in the North and South Koreas. Rice yield is closely related to water supply including irrigation, precipitation, and soil water. Drought typically occurs due to the lack of precipitation, and prolonged drought leads to the decrease of soil water, which results in plant water stress. Drought monitoring is crucial for agricultural mitigation because it enables us to estimate rice production in a timely manner. The purpose of this study is to suggest an optimal drought index for monitoring agricultural drought over North and South Koreas. Although North and South Koreas have similar climate conditions, they have different levels of infrastructure for agriculture such as irrigation facilities. In this study, nine satellite-based drought indices were used and evaluated based on in situ measurements at weather stations including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and rice yield. Drought indices were calculated using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) soil moisture, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Since various drought indices have been developed with their own purpose, considering the characteristics of the study area under investigation, their applications for other regions are relatively limited. Thus, comparison of various drought indices is needed to identify an optimal drought index for a certain area. The measurable objectives of this research were to 1) compare the characteristics of drought depending on the properties of drought indices such as temperature, vegetation, precipitation, and soil moisture and 2) evaluate various drought indices using SPIs and rice yield data. The performance of the drought indices was evaluated using correlation coefficient values (R) for reference data (i.e., SPI and rice yield). As expected, drought indices including NDVI showed positive relationships with rice yield in both regions (averaged R=0.37). Meanwhile, temperature based drought indices showed negative relationships with rice yield in both regions because high temperature means high solar radiation, which is essential to rice production. While the correlation coefficient between precipitation based indices and rice yield was positive in North Korea (averaged R=0.34), it was negative in South Korea (averaged R=-0.26). The opposite pattern by area is because South Korea (117,457 irrigation Canals) has more artificial controls over agricultural land such as irrigation facilities and reservoirs than North Korea (51,400 irrigation Canals).</p>