Sensitivity analysis of cumulus parameterizations for an irradiation simulation case

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to improve the results of a solar resource assessment performed with a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model by selecting the best cumulus parametrization for the south of Sonora region. Past results of solar resource assessment by NWP models for the region are promising and also could be improved mainly during the monsoon season. These sorts of results are frequent on different solar radiation forecasts and assessments, on different places, obtained by NWP models since the results depend on climate, season, and location. We assume as a starting point that some of these problems could be solved by selecting the right cumulus parameterizations for each case. Simulations on two seasons (winter and summer) for seven cumulus parameterizations were done. From these results, two cumulus parameterizations were chosen, simulated and compared in a different season (spring) for one month. For all cases, the GHI results for the region present that Simplified Arakawa-Schubert based simulations have better correlation with the observations.