Sensitivity analysis of a new model to predict the survival probability of artificial rock blocks upon dynamic impact

Abstract

Rockfall fragmentation is a very complex phenomenon that is still poorly understood and modelled. Being able to adequately model fragmentation of impacting blocks, including change of shape, size, and energy after breakage, is essential to be able to predict realistic trajectories and design effective mitigation measures. In order to develop an accurate predictive model for rockfall fragmentation, it is necessary to better understand the fragmentation process and its likely outcomes. A novel model was recently proposed by the authors which can predict the survival probability (SP) of brittle spheres upon impact from the statistical distribution of material parameters, obtained by standard quasi-static tests (Brazilian tests and unconfined compression tests). The survival probability is described as a Weibull function whose two parameters (shape parameter-m-and scale parameter - critical kinetic energy) are predicted by the model. The model is based on theoretically-derived (from Hertzian contact theory) conversion factors used to transform the critical work required to fail disc samples in quasi-static indirect tension into the critical kinetic energy to cause failure of spheres at impact in vertical drop tests. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis on the parameters which influence the prediction of the critical kinetic energy.