Sensitivity Analysis of a Combined Groundwater Flow and Solute Transport Model Using Local-Grid Refinement: A Case Study

Abstract

Combining groundwater flow models with solute transport models represents a common challenge in groundwater resources assessments and contaminant transport modeling. Groundwater flow models are usually constructed at somewhat larger scales (involving a coarser discretization) to include natural boundary conditions. They are commonly calibrated using observed groundwater levels and flows (if available). The groundwater solute transport models may be constructed at a smaller scale with finer discretization than the flow models in order to accurately delineate the solute source and the modeled target, to capture any heterogeneity that may affect contaminant migration, and to minimize numerical dispersion while still maintaining a reasonable computing time. The solution that is explored here is based on defining a finer grid subdomain within a larger coarser domain. The local-grid refinement (LGR) implemented in the Modular 3D finite-difference ground-water flow model (MODFLOW) code has such a provision to simulate groundwater flow in two nested grids: a higher-resolution sub-grid within a coarse grid. Under the premise that the interface between both models was well defined, a comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analysis was performed whereby the effect of a parameter perturbation in a coarser-grid model on transport predictions using a higher-resolution grid was quantified. This approach was tested for a groundwater flow and solute transport analysis in support of a safety evaluation of the future Belgian near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility.