Sensitivity Analysis in Basin Modeling: a Case Study from the East Beni Suef Basin, Egypt

Abstract

Summary Several basin model scenarios for the Tareef-1X well from the East Beni Suef Basin were simulated to investigate the impact of varying the input data and boundary conditions on the basin modeling workflow. We found that the younger unconformity has the most significant effect on thermal maturity, as the older unconformity is most likely overprinted by the subsequent tectonic events. The eroded thickness and heat flow have proportional and mutual impacts on thermal maturity. The eroded lithology controls the required amount of erosion on a basis reflecting the different thermal and mechanical characteristics of rocks, which in turn affect the thermal maturity. The paleo water depth has no significant impact on the maturity levels, which could be attributed to the subtle link between the paleo water depth and the compaction of sediments. Different source rock kinetics for the same type II kerogen resulted in various transformation ratios and generation rates, due to variation in the depositional setting and source rock characteristics (age, and lithofacies) among the applied standard kinetics. The sensitivity analysis results emphasize the significance of a reasonable adjustment of input parameters and boundary conditions as a prerequisite for a more accurate and effective basin modeling.