Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Framework for Site Selection of Aquifer Recharge with Reclaimed Water

Abstract

The pressure on Egypt’s limited water resources has increased as a result of the country’s growing industrial and agricultural sectors, coupled with climate change impacts and population growth. To overcome the current water stress situation, the utilization of new technologies such as managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is thought to be key for expanding the use of non-conventional water resources and providing necessary water supplies. Managed aquifer recharge can boost groundwater recharge and promote greater water accessibility. Suitability maps for MAR are widely offered as a tool to aid in decision-making in the context of balancing water demand and supply. Conducting a sensitivity analysis to validate suitability mapping can enhance the understanding of the results and pinpoint the influencing factors. The West Delta region was chosen as a case study given the existence of two MAR sites to examine the suitability of implementing MAR projects with reclaimed water. In this work, a spatially explicit sensitivity analysis is performed on a newly developed framework for MAR suitability maps that use multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to determine suitable locations for MAR implementation, using spreading methods techniques. The performed sensitivity analysis uses spatial visualization to examine the effect of various weighted criteria on the final outputs and identifies criteria that are especially sensitive to weight changes. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the applied MCDA framework for the suitability mapping in West Delta produced robust results in terms of the most suitable sites for MAR. The obtained results also indicate the possibility of the use of the suggested framework for arid environments with comparable data availability. Moreover, the results emphasize the possible use of suitability maps in sustainable groundwater management plans to support the actual implementation of MAR projects in the West Delta.