Sensitivity Analysis for MOVES Running Emissions: A Latin Hypercube Sampling-Based Approach

Abstract

In order to interpret how the uncertainty in the output can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs, it is critical to understand the MOVES model sensitivity. In this research, the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model project level sensitivity tests on running emission were conducted through the analysis of vehicle specific power (VSP), scaled tractive power, and MOVES emission rates versus speed curves. This study tested the speed, acceleration, and grade - the three most critical variables for vehicle specific power for light duty vehicles and scaled tractive power (STP) for heavy duty vehicles. A Latin Hypercube sampling-based method for estimation of the Sobal sensitivity indices showed that the speed is the most critical variable among the three inputs for both VSP and STP. Acceleration and grades showed lower response to the main effects and sensitivity indices. No significant differences on emission rates were identified among the regulatory classes of heavy duty vehicles.