Abstract
In the present study, Level II AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) reliability model was used for the probability of pipe breakage. Sensitivity analysis of Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient in unsteady analysis has been performed. It was found that the probability of pipe breakage could be considerably increased when Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient is relatively smaller. If thickness is 0.4 cm, diameter is 40 cm, and allowable stress is 1200 kg/cm2, the probability of pipe breakage was 37.04, 30.33, 24.72, and 23.30%, respectively when Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient is 0.01, 0.02, 0.04, and 0.06 regarding unsteady effect. Level III MCS (Monte-Carlo Simulation) model was used for the confirmations of AFDA model in the present study. The results of present sensitivity analysis showed that Darcy-Weisbach friction coefficient in unsteady analysis could significantly affect the probability of pipe breakage and should be carefully selected for the safe design and economical maintenance for water distribution system.
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