Sensitivity analysis for decision-making of UHV long distance power transmission site selection under uncertainty based on cloud model

Abstract

The selection of Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) substation site is a complex multi-objective decision-making problem. The randomness of wind power output and continuous adjustment of the grid structure will bring uncertain factors to the decision-making process, which will directly affect the stability of decision-making result. Therefore, the sensitivity analysis is necessary to be carried out to the uncertainty of index values and index weights in the decision-making process. Firstly, this paper carries out the sensitivity analysis under the change of single index and multiple weights respectively. Three comprehensive evaluation methods including Delphi, Entropy weight method, grey relational analysis (GRA), which will help decision makers master and deal with the sensitive indexes and weights more carefully in the decision-making process. Secondly, this paper takes comprehensive evaluation values of each alternative obtained by each comprehensive evaluation method with the change of index values and index weights as sample data respectively, and introduces cloud model to compare the robustness of decision-making results under each comprehensive evaluation method in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each comprehensive evaluation method, this will help decision makers choose the comprehensive evaluation method with better robustness of decision result. Finally the example analysis results verify the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper, so as to gain insight into the sensitivity analysis of decision problem and relate it back to real engineering application.