Sensitivities of Vegetation Gross Primary Production to Precipitation Frequency in the Northern Hemisphere from 1982 to 2015

Abstract

Vegetation of the Northern Hemisphere plays a vital role in global ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Variations in precipitation profoundly affect vegetation productivity, plant growth, and species communities. Precipitation frequency directly controls soil moisture availability, which has an impact on the vegetation carbon sink. However, it is unclear how precipitation frequency affects the vegetation productivity of different land cover types in different seasons. In this study, the sensitivities of the gross primary production (GPP) of six vegetation types (forest, cropland, grassland, shrubland, tundra and barren land) in response to the frequency of five categories of precipitation (trace: 0.1–5 mm/day, small: 5–10 mm/day, moderate: 10–15 mm/day, heavy: 15–20 mm/day, and very heavy: >20 mm/day) were analyzed based on the XGBoost model. The results showed that, between 1982 and 2015, precipitation frequency declined in most land cover types but increased significantly in the pan-Arctic. Differences in the sensitivity to precipitation frequency were observed between seasons and precipitation categories in northern latitudes. The GPP values of forest and barren land vegetation were less sensitive to precipitation frequency than grassland, shrubland and tundra. This may be related to different vegetation community structures and underlying surfaces and gradually increasing drought resistance capability. The sensitivity to precipitation frequency declined for moderate and heavy precipitation in cropland, but it increased in winter. As the frequency of trace precipitation diminishes in winter, the sensitivity of each vegetation type reduces by an average of 0.03%/decade. Conversely, the sensitivities to small and moderate rain increase by 0.01%/decade and 0.02%/decade, respectively, for ecosystems such as cultivated land, forests, and shrubs. However, shrubs and tundra exhibit distinct behaviors, where shifts in precipitation frequency align directly with trends in sensitivity. These results show that the frequency of precipitation significantly affects vegetation productivity and has different sensitivities, and vegetation shows different feedback mechanisms in the face of environmental changes.