Sensitivities of species compositions of the mixed forest in eastern Eurasian continent to climate change

Abstract

Sensitivities of species compositions of the broadleaf–conifer mixed forest in eastern Eurasian continent to climate change were evaluated with three forest gap models, namely KOPIDE, NEWCOP, and ForClim. Testing sites are located on Changbai Mountain, the middle of the distribution range for the mixed forest. Six climate change scenarios characterizing increase in temperature and increase/decrease in precipitation were used to test the sensitivities of species composition to climate change. Simulations suggest that the mixed forest in temperate Monsoon Asia will face changes in species composition should climate change be almost certain. At the minimum level, the order of dominant species is going to change due to species competition, resulting in the increase in the proportion of broadleaved tree species in the forest. If air temperature increases and precipitation decreases, Pinus koraiensis is going to disappear from the forest and the mixed forest will become hardwood forest. This experiment supports some earlier predictions under other climate change scenarios.