Semi-automated stochastic simultaneous simulation of macroseismic information and strong ground motion records for recent strong earthquakes of the Aegean area

Abstract

We apply a stochastic simulation approach for the simultaneous modeling of macroseismic data and strong ground motion records for several shallow strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.0) that occurred in the Aegean area from 1980 to 1995 Alkyonides (1981, M6.7), Kalamata (1986, M6.0), Kozani (1995, M6.6) and Aigio (1995, M6.4). The application is semi-automatic, as several of the selected input parameters for the stochastic simulation modeling were automatically calibrated using a priori information (e.g., magnitude, stress parameter, site effects). Other parameters (e.g., fault type, depth) were pre‑determined, based on published information, most of which are usually derived during standard earthquake analysis. The validity and reliability of this approach was examined, to test if this method could be applied either in a fully automated manner, or for the study of source properties of historical earthquakes. While the results obtained from the semi-automated simulations were satisfactory, they also suggest that it is not possible to achieve the same level of reliability and robustness when modeling complicated seismic sequences, as e.g., is the case of the Alkyonides earthquake (1981, M6.7).