Semantic and syntactic transfer of fitness landscape models to the analysis of collective and public decision making processes

Abstract

textabstractWe set out to develop a method and research technique that could unite both modelling and case-based observations in order to analyse collective decision-making processes. Following Abbott’s (2001) recommendation regarding social processes, we have defined collective decision-making as an uninterrupted and non-directional process that is structured in sequences or lineages of events. To structure these processes, we re-modelled the basic components of Kauffman’s (1993) NK-model. We converted N to ‘problem and solution definitions’ (PSDs) and K to ‘connectedness’ between actors (c_score). An important modification is that we consider NK to be a dependent configuration; i.e., K entails both content and process. Fitness is defined as the probability of an actor achieving (elements of) its PSD as a result of its adaptive moves in relation to the adaptive moves of others. The model is put to the test in four different studies: (1) 20 years of decision-making in planning, building and servicing HSL-Zuid high-speed railways in the Netherlands; (2) the strategic search process of villages and cantons in the Gotthard region of Switzerland; (3) the redevelopment of a football stadium and the surrounding area in south Rotterdam, the Netherlands; and (4) the rise and fall of the Airport RailLink in Bangkok, Thailand. From these studies, we derived six archetypes in collection decision-making, subdivided into actor archetypes and interaction archetypes. For the actor archetypes, behavioural consistency is not just a trait for the actor but also affects the space of possibilities and/or behaviours of other actors. The interactions of individual actors combine to produce self-propagating dynamics that drive the further evolution of the collective decision-making process. The fitness field model enables researchers to investigate the various dimensions of the collective decision-making process – ranging from individual strategies and actions to variation, selection and retention of contents, from interactions to fitness gains and losses, and back again.