Self-organized Fractal Seismicity and b Value of Aftershocks of the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake in Kutch (India)

Abstract

— The devastating intraplate earthquake of Mw 7.7 of 26 January, 2001 took place along the south-dipping reverse fault in the lower crust (∼ 23 km) of Kutch, Gujarat, India, obliterating some 14,000 people. The aftershock activity has ensued for three years. We analyzed 997 aftershocks of M ≥ 3.0 to study the b value and fractal correlation dimensions in time and space. The ‘b’ value is found to be 0.8 ± 0.03 from the Gutenberg-Richter relation and 0.76 ± 0.02 from the maximum-likelihood, suggesting a typical value for the intraplate region. The spatial correlation is 1.71 ± 0.02, indicating that events are approaching a two-dimensional region. Further, the temporal correlation dimension is estimated to be 0.78 ± 0.02, confirming the structure is mono-fractal in time domain. The depth section of b value shows a peak at 15–35 km depth range coinciding with the maximum occurrence of aftershocks (∼ 47%), which is inferred as a fluid-filled highly fractured rock matrix with fractures of high density. It will be important to note that tomographic results also suggest a low Vp, low Vs and a large Poisson’s ratio for the same depth range, further confirming this inference. Additionally, we have studied the variation of D2s and b value with time. During the first two months of aftershock activity the results show a marked negative correlation between spatial correlation dimension D2 (large) and b value (low), indicating the predominance of large events associated with weak clustering. The negative correlation means the stress release along faults of a larger surface area. After two months the fractal dimension (D2s) and b value suggests a positive correlation implying more numerous smaller shocks with stress release along faults of a smaller surface area. This would indicate a reduced probability of large magnitude earthquakes due to fragmentation of the fault zone.