Abstract
Predicting evacuation patterns is useful in emergency management situations such as an earthquake. To find out how pre-trained individuals interact with one another to achieve their own goal to reach the exit as fast as possible firstly, we investigated urban people’s evacuation behavior under earthquake disaster coditions, established crowd response rules in emergencies, and described the drill strategy and exit familiarity quantitatively through a cellular automata model. By setting different exit familiarity ratios, simulation experiments under different strategies were conducted to predict people’s reactions before an emergency. The corresponding simulation results indicated that the evacuees’ training level could affect a multi-exit zone’s evacuation pattern and clearance time. Their exit choice preferences may disrupt the exit options’ balance, leading to congestion in some of the exits. Secondly, due to people’s rejection of long distances, congestion, and unfamiliar exits, some people would hesitant about the evacuation direction during the evacuation process. This hesitation would also significantly reduce the overall evacuation efficiency. Finally, taking a community in Zhuhai City, China, as an example, put forward the best urban evacuation drill strategy. The quantitative relation between exit familiar level and evacuation efficiency was obtained. The final results showed that the optimized evacuation plan could improve evacuation’s overall efficiency through the self-organization effect. These studies may have some impact on predicting crowd behavior during evacuation and designing the evacuation plan.
Highlights
Crowd behavior in emergencies is an exciting and valuable research topic
The results showed that the exit familiarity caused by different drill strategies might disrupt the balance of their exit choices, causing some of them to be crowded
To avoid the panic effect leading to irrational behavior at the exit, video surveillance equipment, manual intervention, and onsite guidance can be added to control the risk of unreasonable conduct
Summary
Crowd behavior in emergencies is an exciting and valuable research topic. People’s behavior during an earthquake manifests as crowd behavior in emergencies. The stampede of the crowd directly caused nearly 500 casualties. That, another stampede accident occurred when the Muslim Hajj was held in Mecca, Saudi. On 12 January 2006, which simultaneously caused 345 deaths and nearly 400 injuries. Due to a large number of people at the scene and improper guidance. 2 2ofof 23 measures, crowdswith colliding with each other caused some people to fall, leading to crowds colliding each other caused some people to fall, leading directly to directly
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