Self-Activation of the World Nuclear Weapons System

Abstract

It is shown that two antagonistic global nuclear weapons systems engaged in the arms race evolve in time in to a single uncontrollable randomly self-activating stockpile. This is due to the essential dynamics of the de velopments in nuclear weapons and is a special feature of the race in this type of weaponry not revealed by traditional mathematical models of the arms race. A mathematical model, which takes into consideration the qualitative changes involved in the race in this type of weapons as well as the inherent random behaviour of complex computer software of Early Warning Systems (EWSs), provides a framework for computing the probability of self-activation of the world nuclear weapons system. Faster delivery to targets of nuclear wea pons through technological development and/or deployment of new nuclear weapons vehicles nearer to tar get can drastically increase this probability. Conditions under which the arms race leads to such self-activa tion with probability 1, are given. The dangers involved by the increased dependence of the nuclear weapons systems on computers, arising from the impossibility to avoid errors in the corresponding software, are discussed in some detail. Assuming certain conditions for reduction in the nuclear arsenals of the two op posing systems considered, an approach to minimizing the probability of self-activation is presented. The paper offers a technical proof that the adage 'we shall have to live with nuclear weapons' is contradic tory. The model used is validated by published information on the random behaviour of a real EWS and the present trends in the development of new nuclear weapon systems, details of which are given in the notes at the end of the paper.