Abstract
A strategy that informs on countries’ potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68–616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78–791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.
Highlights
A strategy that informs on countries’ potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance
In this sense, providing information for countries about their economic losses due to insufficient action against climate change and check if they had net income when they achieve the 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C target would be helpful for countries to make a self-preservation decision
If the rise in temperature in 2100 is
Summary
Though our self-preservation strategies are able to achieve the temperature-limiting goals and are able to obtain the cumulative positive net income for all countries before 2100, as compare to the current emissions reduction efforts, many countries and regions would have a negative net income in the early stage due to the large amount of GHG abatement cost. To avoid the threat of climate damage, all countries in the world are encouraged to adopt the climate mitigation actions following our selfpreservation strategy, which would allow them to reach 0.46–5.24% GDP gains in 2100 Most importantly, implementing such a self-preservation strategy in a real word requires countries to recognize the gravity of global warming and to make breakthroughs in low-carbon technologies.
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