Self-attribution, Overconfidence and Dynamic Market Volatility in Indian Stock Market

Abstract

The article provides an empirical evaluation of self-attribution, overconfidence bias and dynamic market volatility at Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) across various market capitalizations. First, the investors’ reaction to market gain when they make right and wrong forecasts is studied to understand whether self-attribution bias causes investors’ overconfidence. It is found that when investors make right forecasts of future returns, they become overconfident and trade more in subsequent time periods. Next, the relation between excessive trading volume of overconfident investors and excessive prices volatility is studied. The trading volume is decomposed into a first variable related to overconfidence and a second variable unrelated to investors’ overconfidence. During pre-crisis period, the analysis of small stocks shows that conditional volatility is positively related to trading volume caused by overconfidence. During post-crisis period, the analysis shows that the under-confident investors became very pessimistic in small stocks and tend to overweight the future volatility. Whereas, the analysis of large stocks indicates that the overconfidence component of trading volume is positively correlated with the market volatility. Collectively, the empirical results provide strong statistical support to the presence of self-attribution and overconfidence bias explaining a large part of excessive and asymmetric volatility in Indian stock market.