Selective Publication within Vascular Surgery: Characteristics of Discontinued and Unpublished Randomized Clinical Trials

Abstract

Discontinued and unpublished randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are common resulting in biased publication and loss of potential knowledge. The magnitude of selective publication within vascular surgery remains unknown. RCT relevant to vascular surgery registered (01/01/2010-10/31/2019) on ClinicalTrials.gov were included. Trials ending normally with conclusion of participant treatment and examination were considered completed whereas discontinued trials stopped early. Publications were identified through automatically indexed PubMed citations on ClinicalTrials.gov or manually identified on PubMed or Google Scholar >30months after the completion date, the date the final participant was examined, allowing time for publication. Of 108 RCT (n=37, 837), 22.2% (24/108) were discontinued, including 16.7% (4/24) stopped prior to and 83.3% (20/24) after starting enrollment. Only 28.4% of estimated enrollment was achieved for all discontinued RCT. Nineteen (79.2%) investigators provided a reason for discontinuation, which most commonly included poor enrollment (45.8%), inadequate supplies or funding (12.5%), and trial design concerns (8.3%). Of the 20 trials terminated following enrollment, 20.0% (4/20) were published in peer-reviewed journals and 80.0% (16/20) failed to reach publication. Of the 77.8% trials completed, 75.0% (63/84) were published and 25.0% (21/84) remain unpublished. In a multivariate regression of completed trials, industry funding was significantly associated with decreased likelihood of peer-reviewed publication (OR=0.18, (95% CI 0.05-0.71), P=0.01). Of the discontinued and completed trials remaining unpublished, 62.5% and 61.9% failed to report results on ClinicalTrials.gov, respectively, encompassing a total of 4,788 enrollees without publicly available results. Nearly 25% of registered vascular RCT were discontinued. Of completed RCT, 25% remain unpublished with industry funding associated with decreased likelihood of publication. This study identifies opportunities to report all findings for completed and discontinued vascular surgery RCT, whether industry sponsored, or investigator initiated.