Selection of the optimal option for the transformation of the “Shelter” object into an environmentally safe system using the factor-criterion model of scenario analysis

Abstract

The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of potential scenarios for Shelter Object transformation into an environmentally safe system after the commissioning of the New Safe Confinement. The analysis of scenarios is based on the developed factor-criteria model, which includes two groups of indicators in the scenario assessment: groups of factors and sets of criteria for each factor. The assessment of a separate scenario is carried out using the global value indicator. The global value of the scenario is determined taking into account the criterion content of all assessment factors. Characteristics of groups of factors and their criteria were determined by means of peer review. The assessment of the global values of scenarios allowed us to rank them. Based on the analysis, the most reasonable and realistic strategy for the phased removal/transfer to a controlled state of fuel-containing materials was proposed. The strategy also includes processes for further management of these materials and associated radioactive waste. As well as “Shelter” Object transformation processes in the process of its transformation into an environmentally safe system and determination of its final state. Based on the results of the comparative analysis of scenarios, it was found that the scenario that provides for the removal of known accumulations of fuel-containing materials during the life cycle of the New Safe Confinement is optimal if the activities on the phased retrieval of fuel-containing materials are properly financed.