SELECTION OF THE MOST APPROPRIATE GROUND MOTION PREDICTION EQUATION FOR LOCAL SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS

Abstract

Together with the ever-increasing number of global and local Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) and the complexity of the functional forms, incompatibility problems arise in the selection of the most appropriate GMPE for a specific location. Obviously, associated with the incompatibility issues, practitioners face a compromise over the precision of prediction because the functional form of the considered GMPE might be developed by considering all the influential parameters, which might not be available for the considered location. Hence, a modification is required to adjust the considered GMPE to local conditions by using the local ground motion data. The sensitivity of the parameters of the selected GMPEs to the local seismic propagation patterns can be determined only after the adjustment. The local propagation patterns, on the other hand, can only be identified by analyzing the indigenous data. Together with the attempts to solve the incompatibility problem, the selection of the most appropriate GMPE becomes the selection of the most suitable functional form. The aim of this study is to select the most appropriate GMPE for Eskişehir through the guidance of the above statements. A number of GMPEs are selected according to the criteria of wider utilization and recognition. All the candidate GMPEs were subjected to adjustments, including some minor modifications and the calibration of the coefficients by using the indigenous data. Then, a number of statistical and visual procedures were applied including the performance test of the adjusted GMPEs with the records of the two largest earthquakes that occurred in the region. The study highlights the influence of the local seismic behavior on the performance of various functional forms of the candidate GMPEs.