Abstract
For the selection of global climate models in the upper basin of the Blue Nile, an advanced envelope-based approach was used. Currently, the number of general circulations models (GCM) has increased extremely. The reliability of any general circulation model in a particular region is confronted, so the selection of the appropriate climate models that can predict the climate variable is essential. Representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were taken into account. For RCP4.5 105 GCMs were used and for RCP8.5 78 GCMs were used to select the best performance models for the Upper Blue Nile Basin for a climate change impact study. Three steps were followed to derive the best performing models in the study area based on their range of projected mean temperature and precipitation changes, the range of projected extreme changes, and the ability to reproduce past climates between 1971 and 2000 and 2071–2100. Five corners of the spectrum were used, e.g., wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold, and the 50th percentile of the temperatures. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a total of 25 GCMs were chosen based on the range of anticipated mean temperature and rainfall change. Based on the range of extreme changes, 10 GCMs were chosen. Finally, for each RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, five GCMs were chosen by combining all three stages.
Highlights
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutralClimate models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the complex climate of the Earth
Other methods for selecting the best climate model are the applied filter and wrapper feature selection methods [6,11,12,13] taking into account different qualification metrics, statistical indices or their combination using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), while past performance and envelope-based are used on this study
A medium (RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario were chosen for this term climate change models do not provide for changes in vegetation
Summary
Climate models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the complex climate of the Earth. In most climate impact studies, climate models should be selected based on the full range of changes. The selection of climate downscaling models is typically carried out in two key ways, namely, the envelope and the past efficiency approach [7,8,9]. The performance approach has the possibility to hide all projection areas selected from the available GCM pool for an ensemble, eliminating the need to use the envelope method after selection. Other methods for selecting the best climate model are the applied filter and wrapper feature selection methods [6,11,12,13] taking into account different qualification metrics, statistical indices or their combination using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), while past performance and envelope-based are used on this study. Assessment Report of the IPCC, the selected climate model data will be downscaled and used as input in the hydrological SWAT model [14,15] in order to measure potential impacts of climate change on river runoff and sediment yield in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin
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