Selection of Geostationary Satellite Launch Vehicle Using Expected Value Analysis

Abstract

Selection of launch vehicle for a geostationary satellite is an important decision for satellite operators. Depending on only to the cost of the launcher may result unexpected consequences. Lifetime of the satellite is determined by the orbit parameters of the launcher. Success probability of the launcher can be deduced statistically by previous launches or using the insurance rate of the market for the selected launcher. Insurance rate will be used in this study, which is also added to the cost of the satellite project besides satellite and launcher costs. Design life time of communication satellites are currently 15 years, means that manufacturer warrant the operation of the satellite for 15 years via performance incentive or warranty payback mechanisms. But satellites continue to generate revenues during their maneuver lifetime, which is more than 15 years. Expected value analysis is a powerful tool to include probabilistic nature of satellite projects. Satellite and launch costs, insurance rate and lifetime parameters will be utilized in expected value analysis to be able to select the best launcher for a given satellite program.