Selection of Earthquake Scaling Relationships for Seismic-Hazard Analysis

Abstract

A fundamentally important but typically abbreviated component of seismic‐hazard analysis is the selection of earthquake scaling relationships. These are typically regressions of historical earthquake datasets, in which magnitude is estimated from parameters such as fault rupture length and area. The mix of historical data from different tectonic environments and the different forms of the regression equations can result in large differences in magnitude estimates for a given fault rupture length or area. We compile a worldwide set of regressions and make a first‐order shortlisting of regressions according to their relevance to a range of tectonic regimes (plate tectonic setting and fault slip type) in existence around the world. Regression relevance is based largely on the geographical distribution, age, and quantity/quality of earthquake data used to develop them. Our compilation is limited to regressions of magnitude (or seismic moment) on fault rupture area or length, and our shortlisted regressions show a large magnitude range (up to a full magnitude unit) for a given rupture length or area across the various tectonic regimes. These large differences in magnitude estimates underline the importance of choosing regressions carefully for seismic‐hazard application in different tectonic environments.