Selection of a forecasting model for Russia consumer price index based on the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

The present article is dedicated to the problem of making decisions in the process of selecting a forecasting model through the example of Russia Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast. Forecast values of CPI have been obtained for a year of 2021 using five models. Qualitative criteria for the comparability of the models have been formulated in order to select the most appropriate model. The application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process gives the opportunity to determine the optimal model for the Consumer Price Index forecast based on the synthesis of quantitative preference vectors.