Abstract
Everybody knows that overconfidence can be foolhardy. But a study reveals that having an overly positive self-image might confer an evolutionary advantage if the rewards outweigh the risks. See Letter p.317 Overconfidence is a major puzzle in evolutionary biology, economics and political science, because despite causing costly errors and policy failures, it remains a widespread bias in human judgement and decision-making. Animals too, in examples seen during conflict behaviour, are liable to overconfidence. Dominic Johnson and James Fowler use game theory to model the situations under which overconfidence is an advantage, and find that they occupy a large part of the parameter space. They also show that overconfidence and conflict tend to increase with greater resource availability. As long as the prize at stake sufficiently exceeds the cost of competing for it, it seems, fortune favours the brave.
Highlights
Ask anyone with a driver’s licence to rate their own abilities behind the wheel, and most people will report that they are above average[1]
A biased self-belief can lead people to make the right decision, whereas an unbiased self-image would lead to a suboptimal decision
A weaker contestant could win a reward if she claims it while the opponent backs off. This situation can be dealt with within the realm of what economists call perfect rationality, which assumes that both parties understand all aspects of their situation, and that they correctly anticipate the odds that the other player will claim the resource
Summary
Ask anyone with a driver’s licence to rate their own abilities behind the wheel, and most people will report that they are above average[1]. You would think that an incorrect assessment of one’s own capabilities can induce only misguided decisions. One suggested explanation is that there is a benefit in having others think that you’re great.
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