Abstract
At-site flood frequency analysis is a direct method of estimation of flood frequency at a particular site. The appropriate selection of probability distribution and a parameter estimation method are important for at-site flood frequency analysis. Generalized extreme value, three-parameter log-normal, generalized logistic, Pearson type-III and Gumbel distributions have been considered to describe the annual maximum steam flow at five gauging sites of Torne River in Sweden. To estimate the parameters of distributions, maximum likelihood estimation and L-moments methods are used. The performance of these distributions is assessed based on goodness-of-fit tests and accuracy measures. At most sites, the best-fitted distributions are with LM estimation method. Finally, the most suitable distribution at each site is used to predict the maximum flood magnitude for different return periods.
Highlights
Floods are natural hazards and cause extreme damages throughout the world
We come across a number of methods which are available in the literature for flood magnitude estimation, but at-site flood frequency analysis remains the most direct method of estimation of flood frequency at a particular site
Flood frequency analysis is performed by using generalized extreme value (GEV), P3, GUM, generalized logistic (GLO) and LN3 distributions
Summary
Floods are natural hazards and cause extreme damages throughout the world. The main reasons of floods are extreme rainfall, ice and snow melting, dam breakage and the lack of capacity of the river watercourse to convey the excess water. Floods are natural phenomena which cause disasters like destruction of infrastructure, damages in environmental and agricultural lands, mortality and economic losses. Many frequency distribution models have been developed for determination of hydraulic frequency, but none of the distribution models is accepted as a universal distribution to describe the flood frequency at any gauging site. We need to estimate the flood magnitude at a particular site for various purposes including construction of hydraulic structures (barrages, canals, bridges, dams, embankments, reservoirs and spillways), insurance studies, planning of flood management and rescue operations. We come across a number of methods which are available in the literature for flood magnitude estimation, but at-site flood frequency analysis remains the most direct method of estimation of flood frequency at a particular site
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