Selecting short-statured children needing growth hormone testing: Derivation and validation of a clinical decision rule

Abstract

BackgroundNumerous short-statured children are evaluated for growth hormone (GH) deficiency (GHD). In most patients, GH provocative tests are normal and are thus in retrospect unnecessary.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify predictors of growth hormone (GH) deficiency (GHD) in children seen for short stature, and to construct a very sensitive and fairly specific predictive tool to avoid unnecessary GH provocative tests. GHD was defined by the presence of 2 GH concentration peaks < 10 ng/ml. Certain GHD was defined as GHD and viewing pituitary stalk interruption syndrome on magnetic resonance imaging. Independent predictors were identified with uni- and multi-variate analyses and then combined in a decision rule that was validated in another population.ResultsThe initial study included 167 patients, 36 (22%) of whom had GHD, including 5 (3%) with certain GHD. Independent predictors of GHD were: growth rate < -1 DS (adjusted odds ratio: 3.2; 95% confidence interval [1.3–7.9]), IGF-I concentration < -2 DS (2.8 [1.1–7.3]) and BMI z-score ≥ 0 (2.8 [1.2–6.5]). A clinical decision rule suggesting that patients be tested only if they had a growth rate < -1 DS and a IGF-I concentration < -2 DS achieved 100% sensitivity [48–100] for certain GHD and 63% [47–79] for GHD, and a specificity of 68% [60–76]. Applying this rule to the validation population (n = 40, including 13 patients with certain GHD), the sensitivity for certain GHD was 92% [76–100] and the specificity 70% [53–88].ConclusionWe have derived and performed an internal validation of a highly sensitive decision rule that could safely help to avoid more than 2/3 of the unnecessary GH tests. External validation of this rule is needed before any application.