‘Seizing the Window of Strategic Opportunity’: A Study of China’s Macro–Strategic Narrative since the 21st Century

Abstract

Since the turn of the 21st century, China has leveraged the international environment in its favour to achieve a spectacularly rapid rise, a success that Chinese strategic policymakers attribute in part to ‘seizing the strategic window of opportunity’. How has China perceived the international environment and shaped the narrative of its macro-strategy? What impact has it had on China and the world? The article explores the evolution of the strategic narrative of the ‘window of opportunity’ in three stages since the 21st century and explores its impact in terms of quantity and keyword mapping by analysing the narrative texts of China’s ‘discourse coalition’ (government, official media and intellectual elites). The study found that China’s macro-strategic narrative is primarily driven by the official political and semi-official intellectual elites and places a premium on domestic political persuasion rather than external displays of strategic intent. It combines classical and modern philosophical thinking and methodology with the two core objectives of ‘maintaining peace’ and an ‘economic priority’. Over 20 years, the trend of narrative production of the ‘strategic opportunity period’ has shown a concentrated emergence and fluctuating decline, and its narrative elements have been enriched, interlinked and aligned with the narrative of the CPC’s core policies. The narrative of the ‘strategic opportunity period’ has been a powerful force in building domestic legitimacy, guaranteeing partial fulfilment of strategic objectives and offering lessons for other countries to learn from. Inevitably, the narrative faces a number of dilemmas and challenges.