Abstract
The Ms=7.3 Suusamyr earthquake of August 19, 1992 occurred in an area reputedly aseismic. Because it was not expected there, this event attracted worldwide attention of researchers in seismology and seismotectonics, but their results have not been included in the most recent seismic zoning map of Kyrgyzstan. New studies of neotectonic structures and focal mechanisms of earthquakes in the Suusamyr area and adjacent areas give reason to revise the established notions about the seismicity of the region. The seismic hazard in Inner Tienshan appears important and Mmax are comparable to those of the Northern and Southern Tienshan, where numerous destructive events were documented in the XIX and XX centuries. For the southern parts of the study area, along Naryn River, where hydroelectric power stations are planned, the new data should be used.
Highlights
Recorded seismicity of the Kyrgyzstan Tienshan shows epicenters aligned along narrow linear zones striking N060°–070°
If specialists have some knowledge on the likely location of future earthquakes, they are still unable to preci sely predict when seismic events may occur. This is the case for the M=7.3 1992 Suusamyr earthquake, which was unexpected by both the inhabitants and the earth scientists because, before this event, multiple arguments had been brought forward to conclude that the internal regions of Tienshan are weakly seismic
Because of this dramatic discrepancy between the prevision and the reality, the Suusamyr earthq uake attracted worldwide attention of specialists and trigg ered much work on seismological aspects (e.g. [Djanuzakov et al, 1997; Mellors et al, 1997]) and surface effects in the epicentral area [Bogachkin et al, 1997; Ghose et al, 1997; Havenith et al, 2000; Su Zong zheng et al, 1999; Ainscoe et al, 2019]. These studies considered seismotectonics and seism icity of the region, but their results have not been included in the most recent seismic zoning map of the Suusamyr area [Abdrakhmatov et al, 2012; Turdukulov, 1996]. This omission can be corrected with information on: (i) data on active faults, (ii) maximal earthquake magnitudes possible on these faults, and (iii) focal mechanisms for earthquakes
Summary
Recorded seismicity of the Kyrgyzstan Tienshan shows epicenters aligned along narrow linear zones striking N060°–070°. The instrumental records supported the assumption that the Suusamyr valley was seism ically safe (Fig. 1, c) Because of this dramatic discrepancy between the prevision and the reality, the Suusamyr earthq uake attracted worldwide attention of specialists and trigg ered much work on seismological aspects [Djanuzakov et al, 1997; Mellors et al, 1997]) and surface effects in the epicentral area [Bogachkin et al, 1997; Ghose et al, 1997; Havenith et al, 2000; Su Zong zheng et al, 1999; Ainscoe et al, 2019] These studies considered seismotectonics and seism icity of the region, but their results have not been included in the most recent seismic zoning map of the Suusamyr area [Abdrakhmatov et al, 2012; Turdukulov, 1996].
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